This year begins with a cautious return to optimism as the January RIBA Future Trends Index returns to positive territory with a +3 balance, marking the end of four months of negative outlook.
Medium and large practices remain consistently more optimistic about future workloads, although smaller practices have seen an improvement in their outlook.
While the sector indices remain negative, they are improving overall. The critical Private Housing sector has shown the strongest gains. Regional outlooks have improved, too, with all but one region anticipating growing workloads.
At -1, the RIBA Permanent Staffing Index shows that practices remain cautious about recruiting permanent staff. However, expectations for temporary staff are positive and rising. Practices may be seeking to increase short-term capacity ahead of an anticipated workload uptick.
Planning delays and increasing regulatory requirements continue to hold back workloads, with ongoing reports of projects being put on hold or cancelled. Practices continue to describe homeowners being cautious about commissioning projects while project costs and interest rates remain high.
On a more positive note, some practices report the number of new enquiries increasing as the year begins, and some anticipate that stalled developments will restart in the coming months.
Regionally, outlooks have improved across the UK. All but one region reports positive expectations, with the North of England (+17) and Wales and the West (+14) recording strong balances. The South of England (-8) remains the only region in negative territory, although this marks a significant improvement on December.
Sector expectations remain cautious. Although three of the four monitored sectors improved this month, all remain marginally negative. The Private Housing sector recorded the largest recovery, moving from -14 to -3, its highest balance since mid-2025. The Commercial sector, however, slipped back into negative territory at -3. The staffing outlook is mixed. The Permanent Staffing Index remains at -1, suggesting continued caution around long-term recruitment, while the Temporary Staffing Index rose to +6, indicating that some practices may be increasing short-term capacity in anticipation of higher workloads.
Practices continue to report planning delays, increasing regulatory requirements, and fee competition as key constraints on project progression. While many note that enquiries remain slow - particularly in residential work - some report early signs of recovery and anticipate stalled projects restarting in the coming months.
Adrian Malleson, RIBA Head of Economic Research and Analysis, said: “January’s +3 Workload Index suggests confidence is tentatively returning as 2026 begins, ending four months of negative balances.
“While smaller practices remain cautious, medium and large practices continue to report optimism about future work. Sector outlooks remain marginally negative overall, but have improved this month, particularly in Private Housing.
“Although market challenges persist - including planning delays, regulatory pressures and intense fee competition - some practices report early signs of market recovery and anticipate workloads strengthening in the months ahead.”
