Glenigan | powered by Hubexo, one of the construction industry’s leading insight and intelligence experts, releases its widely anticipated UK Construction Industry Autumn Forecast 2026-2027.
Predominantly focused on underlying starts (<£100m in value), unless otherwise stated, it contains a comprehensive overview of the future of the construction industry.
The key takeaway from the Autumn Forecast, which focuses on the two years 2026-2027, is that, despite the aggressive geopolitical and socioeconomic headwinds which have picked up during Q.3 and Q.4 this year, the sector is still on course for recovery in 2026 and 2027.
Growth has been re-forecast. Following a period of international turbulence and domestic uncertainty, 2025 and 2026 figures have been revised down, with the former now in negative numbers (-6%) and the latter adjusted down a couple of percent since the spring (+8%). However, these relatively disappointing results are offset by predictions for 2027, where Glenigan’s Economic Unit foresee a 13% activity boost.
Whilst the industry will be frustrated that a reversal of fortune will not come as quickly as thought back in May/June 2025, there will be a collective sigh of relief that the negative impact of international conflict, trade wars and policy speculation has not done more damage.
Overall, the UK construction sector has done well to weather what has become a persistent storm, punctuated by aggressive peaks and troughs in activity, and is positioning itself to kickstart activity following next week’s Budget.
Positive signals are making themselves heard within a variety of different quarters, with certain ‘verticals to watch’ emerging from amongst the present gloom.
Britain's private housebuilders are facing their most challenging period since the pandemic, with project starts set to decline by 9% this year following April's stamp duty increases. The sector, which enjoyed strong activity in early 2025 as buyers rushed to beat the tax rise, has since seen a sharp fall in activity.
The apartment market has been particularly bruised, with the building safety regulator's sluggish approval process creating a bottleneck that developers describe as "crippling". Rising inflation has also wrong-footed the industry, delaying the interest rate cuts that many had banked on.
Yet there are reasons for optimism. With wages now outpacing inflation and borrowing costs expected to ease, industry chiefs are betting on a strong recovery from 2026. Planning reforms and a clearing of the regulatory backlog should help unlock the pipeline, setting the stage for a potential construction recovery in 2026 and 2027.
Accordingly, Glenigan’s Economic Director, Allan Wilen says, “As with any Forecasts, it’s difficult to foresee unpredicted and spontaneous political and economic issues until they suddenly land, often completely changing the situation. The ‘will they/won’t they’ attitude that the professional and consumer landscape has taken towards trailed Government policy has done nothing to inspire confidence in the latter part of 2025. This is borne out by the dramatic performance decreases we’ve seen across our own Indexes since the summer, dashing any hopes of recovery by the end of this year.
“However, the Chancellor has a real opportunity within this Budget to rebalance the situation and ensure that a kick-start into 2026 is not the false start we witnessed in the Spring of this year. There are some very encouraging signs already across different verticals and it will be up to the industry to take advantage of them and, in some cases, that might mean diversifying to meet more niche demands around low-carbon construction and commercial fit-out or even different building approaches and services; for example, addressing the changing needs of an ageing population. So, whilst we’re experiencing short-term struggles, we’re still confident of a brighter long-term picture.”
