The Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA) has published the latest Future Trends survey results, a monthly report of the business and employment trends affecting the architects’ profession.
In September, the RIBA Future Trends Workload Index fell by 9 points to a balance figure of –17: the lowest score, outside of lockdown since the great recession.
In the next three months, 16% of practices said they expect workloads to increase, 32% expect them to decrease and 52% expect them to remain the same.
All the monitored work sectors have posted a negative balance, and three have shown a further deterioration in confidence since August. The private housing sector has fallen to a balance figure of -17, down from –9. This is a fall of 37 points in the year from January, and a 59 point fall compared to the all-time peak of +42 in May 2021. The commercial sector fell a further 5 points in September, returning a figure of -7, down from -2. There has been a slight increase in optimism in the public sector this month, with a balance figure of -8, compared to -9 in August. The outlook for the community sector remains negative, with a balance score of -7 this month, compared to -6 in August.
Levels of confidence continue to differ by practice size. Smaller practices (1-10 staff) are the most pessimistic about future workloads. With 35% of small practices now expecting workloads to decrease, they have posted a balance figure of -21, down from -12 last month. Medium and large practices (11+ staff) practices have seen confidence fall, returning a combined figure of +10, down by 10 points compared to August.
Confidence in future workloads is low across all regions. London is the most pessimistic region, with a balance score of -23 in September, down from -7 in August. On average, workloads in London practices are 86% of those seen a year ago. Elsewhere, Wales & the West has seen a slight decrease in pessimism, -17 compared to –22 in August. The South of England (-20) and the Midlands & East Anglia (-21) have both slipped further into negative territory. The North of England has dropped into negative territory for the first time since June 2020, returning a Workload Index score of -5.
In terms of staffing:
- For the first time in two years, the RIBA Future Trends Permanent Staffing Index fell into negative territory, at -6, this is down 8 points from August.
- 13% of practices expect to employ fewer permanent staff over the coming three months, whilst 7% expect to employ more. 80% expect permanent staffing levels to stay the same.
- Medium and large-size practices (11+ staff) anticipate staff reductions in the coming three months, with a combined Staffing Index figure of -3. Small practices also expect a fall in permanent staff numbers, returning a figure of –6.
- All regions but one (Wales & the West at +5) are now in negative territory. London has posted a Staffing Index figure of -19, down from –4, with 20% of practices here expecting to employ fewer permanent staff in the coming three months. The Midlands & East Anglia (Staffing Index -6), The South of England (-2), and the North of England (-5) have also returned negative figures.
- The Temporary Staffing Index fell further to -2, compared to -1 in August.
- Levels of personal underemployment have decreased slightly; in September 16% reported being personally underemployed, compared to 17% in August.
RIBA Head of Economic Research and Analysis, Adrian Malleson, said: “This month’s findings are stark - aside from lockdown, architects are now more pessimistic about future workloads than at any time since the financial crisis of 2009.
“We see pessimism across all regions and sectors. Of note, in the capital, nearly a quarter of practices expect workloads to contract in the coming three months. And looking at the private housing sector which had seen a post-Covid boom, confidence has fallen rapidly.
“Brexit, inflation, rising interest rates, post-Covid recovery, the war in Ukraine, and crumbling market confidence in UK fiscal policy all continue to weigh down on the UK economy and the construction sector.
“We can likely expect a contraction in architects’ workloads in the coming months, and into next year. A return to growth depends in part on the UK's response to the energy crisis, on whether we begin in earnest to create a design-led, sustainable built environment.
“We will continue to report these findings to the Government and work with other built environment bodies to monitor ongoing trends.”
