Glenigan has released the October 2026 edition of its Construction Index.
The Index focuses on the three months to the end of September 2026, covering all underlying projects, with a total value of £100 million or less (unless otherwise indicated), with all figures seasonally adjusted.
It’s a report which provides a detailed and comprehensive analysis of year-on-year construction project starts data, giving built environment professionals a unique insight into sector performance over the last 12 months.
The October Index suggests the industry is still waiting for the much anticipated "Burnham Bounce" to show up, especially in terms of project starts.
Overall activity edged down 2% on the preceding three months and remains 18% below last year. Tough market conditions, stubborn borrowing costs and a Chancellor promising ‘fiscal discipline’ have kept the industry cautious and, so far, a new Prime Minister with big construction ambitions is yet to change that.
The Autumn Budget on 28th October is the next big test for the Government, set against the backdrop of increased borrowing which has already overshot forecasts and talk of substantial tax rises which has made investors wary.
Taking a closer look at Glenigan’s numbers, non-residential starts fell 15% against the preceding three months, with retail and hotel & leisure among the steepest drops. Again, the upcoming budget looms large, pointing to developers holding off until they know what the Treasury has in store; likewise until a greater degree of fiscal certainty returns, many commercial schemes are likely to stay on hold. However, it’s not all doom and gloom, Glenigan’s data shows a large spike in infrastructural activity in the previous quarter with civils project starts rocketing 101%, no doubt powered by the Government’s focus on the ‘Great British Grid’ as well as major transport and utilities upgrades.
Commenting on the Index, Glenigan’s Allan Willen says, “A welcome surge in civil engineering projects partially offset a decline in residential and non-residential project starts during the last three months. Whilst private housing starts stabilised against the previous three months, they remained sharply down on a year earlier.
“Looking ahead, the new first-time buyer scheme announced by the Prime Minister will hopefully help to rebuild market confidence and support a recovery in private housebuilding over the coming months. A Budget that gives developers certainty could get stalled schemes moving."
Sector Analysis: Residential
Residential is where the gap between promises and starts is widest. The Prime Minister has indicated the biggest council house building programme since the post-war era, backed by the £39bn Social and Affordable Homes Programme. The proposed commitments may lift the mood, but it’s yet to be seen in the analysis.
It was another tough period for residential construction. Project starts stalled, declining 8% against the preceding three months and falling 33% compared with 2025 levels.
Social housing bore the brunt of the slowdown. Project starts plummeted 33% against the preceding three months and fell 35% on the previous year.
Private housing still accounted for the largest share of activity and showed small shoots of revival, rising 4% against the preceding three months. However, it remained 32% lower than a year ago.
Sector Analysis: Non-Residential
According to Glenigan’s data, non-residential project starts fell 15% quarter-on-quarter, finishing 16% below a year ago. Industrial was the bright spot in a weaker period for non-residential construction. Activity strengthened 20% against the preceding three months, although it remained 9% lower than a year ago.
Office construction had a lacklustre period ending a period of consistently impressive results, with performance declining 15% against the preceding three months to stand 13% below the previous year.
Hotel & Leisure struggled to gain traction, declining 20% against Q.3, dropping 25% under 2025 figures.
Retail experienced one of the steepest drops in the sector, falling 23% quarter-on-quarter and remaining 26% beneath last year's level.
Sector Analysis: Public Sector
Glenigan’s data revealed that Health construction was comparatively resilient and the public sector’s stand out performer, with an 11% rise above a year ago. Although starts dipped 2% against the preceding three months.
Community & Amenity saw a modest decline of 5% against the preceding three months and remained 29% lower than last year's level.
Education, which had enjoyed a relative resurgence over the summer, experienced a particularly weak period with starts nosediving 41% compared with the preceding three months and standing 27% below the previous year.
Sector Analysis: Civils
Glenigan’s insights showed that Civil engineering was the standout performer of the Index period with work starting on-site more than doubling, soaring 101% against the preceding three months and standing 43% above the previous year.
Infrastructure work led the way with an impressive uptick, with starts rocketing 130% against the preceding three months, to surge 43% higher than a year ago. Much of this growth can be attributed to the £58 million East Ayrshire EV Charging Points development which helped support overall sector activity.
Utilities also had a strong spell, rising 73% quarter-on-quarter and stood 43% above last year's level with the commencement of various schemes helping to support activity.
Regional Outlook
The North West experienced the strongest regional performance, rising 23% against the previous quarter, although activity is still 17% below last year’s level. Wales proved relatively resilient too, slipping 11% quarter-on-quarter and standing just 6% lower than a year ago.
The South West and the East Midlands held up better than most over the quarter, with declines of 14% and 22% respectively. The annual picture makes for much harder viewing, starts in the South West and the East Midlands were 48% and 41% lower than the previous year.
Scotland and the South East went through a sluggish spell, dropping 28% and 35% quarter-on-quarter and falling 45% and 54% year-on-year.
London and Yorkshire weakened significantly, falling 43% and 45% quarter-on-quarter. Both spiralled below the previous year to 57% and 55% respectively.
Four regions recorded steep drops. The East of England plummeted 57% against the preceding three months and stood 73% below the previous year. The North East fell 56% quarter-on-quarter declining dramatically to 71% lower than a year ago. Northern Ireland tumbled 52% against the preceding three months and stood 43% below last year. The West Midlands weakened by 56% over the quarter and remained 68% lower than a year ago.
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