The Climate Change Committee’s assessment is that only a third of the emissions reductions required to achieve the country’s 2030 target are currently covered by credible plans.
The 2030 target is the first one set in line with a Net Zero trajectory.
This news comes against the backdrop of a more positive story – that the country’s emissions are now less than half the levels they were in 1990. This is largely due to the phase out of coal and the ramping up of renewables.
This project has been a huge success – but to continue to decarbonise the UK we will now need to see ambitious action not just in the energy sector, but also across transport, buildings, industry and agriculture. The plans in place from the previous Government will not deliver enough action.
“The country’s 2030 emissions reduction target is at risk. The new Government has an opportunity to course-correct, but it will need to be done as a matter of urgency to make up for lost time,” said Professor Piers Forster, interim Chair of the Climate Change Committee. “They are off to a good start. Action needs to extend beyond electricity, with rapid progress needed on electric cars, heat pumps and tree planting.
“The transition to Net Zero can deliver investment, lower bills, and energy security. It will help the UK keep its place on the world stage. It is a way for this Government to serve both the people of today and the people of tomorrow.”
The Committee has written a priority list of ten recommendations. Top among these are to make electricity cheaper, reverse recent policy rollbacks, and ramp up rates of tree planting and peatland restoration.
Much of the low carbon technology needed is already available. Yet almost all our indicators for the scale up and roll out of that technology are off track, with rates needing to significantly ramp up. By 2030:
- Annual offshore wind installations must increase by at least three times, onshore wind installations will need to double and solar installations must increase by five times.
- Approximately 10% of existing homes in the UK will need to be heated by a heat pump, compared to only approximately 1% today.
- The market share of new electric cars needs to increase from 16.5% in 2023 to nearly 100%.
Confusing messaging
The Committee has drawn attention to the damage done by the previous Government’s policy rollbacks. These have increased the gap between the UK’s plans and its targets, leaving us further off track. The broader messaging, both domestically and internationally, also caused significant uncertainty about the country’s commitment to Net Zero. The Committee urges the new Government to address this, with a clear commitment to the Net Zero transition, backed with rapid policy action and a sharp-eyed focus on removing barriers.
Polling shows that the UK public has no appetite for climate division. Until last year, as well as showing domestic leadership, successive UK Governments had played a leading role in international climate diplomacy and could fairly claim to have accelerated action worldwide.
The Committee hopes the new Government will take the opportunity of COP29 in November to re-establish UK leadership on the global climate stage.
The Committee’s ten recommendations are:
- Make electricity cheaper. Removing policy costs from electricity prices will support industrial electrification and ensure the lower running costs of heat pumps compared to fossil-fuel boilers are reflected in household bills.
- Reverse recent policy rollbacks. Remove the exemption of 20% of households from the 2035 fossil-fuel boiler installation phase-out, address the gap left by removing obligations on landlords to improve the energy efficiency of rented homes and reinstate the 2030 phase-out of new fossil-fuel car and van sales. The damage of these rollbacks can be limited by quickly reinstating these policies.
- Remove planning barriers for heat pumps, electric vehicle charge points and onshore wind.
- Introduce a comprehensive programme for decarbonisation of public sector buildings.
- Effectively design and implement the upcoming renewable energy CfD auctions. Ensure funding and auction design for the Sixth and Seventh Allocation Rounds are appropriate to deliver at least 50 GW of offshore wind by 2030.
- Accelerate electrification of industrial heat. Strengthen the UK Emissions Trading Scheme to ensure that its price is sufficient to incentivise decarbonisation and that support is available for a rapid transition to electric heat across much of industry.
- Ramp up tree planting and peatland restoration. Tree planting must be scaled up in the 2020s for abatement to be sufficient for later carbon budgets and Net Zero. There must be no more delays to addressing the barriers to delivery.
- Finalise business models for large-scale deployment of engineered removals. Finalise and open to the market the business models for engineered removals.
- Publish a strategy to support skills. Support workers in sectors which need to grow or transition and in communities that may be adversely impacted.
- Strengthen NAP3 with a vision that sets clear objectives and targets and reorganise government adaptation policy. Adaptation must become a fundamental aspect of policymaking across all departments and be integrated into other national policy objectives.
The Committee will publish its advice on the Seventh Carbon Budget and an updated path to Net Zero early in 2025.
