The Royal Institute
of British Architects (RIBA) Future Trends survey published has shown that
workload predictions in September 2019 were at their lowest point since July
2016 – a fall in confidence that then appeared to be driven by the 2016 Brexit
referendum result.
This is also the
fourth time the workload prediction figure has fallen into negative territory
since 2013.
In September 2019
practices in London and South of England continued to be the most pessimistic
about future workloads, with London dropping 7 points to -15 and the South of
England returning a figure of -8. Workload predictions in the North of England
dropped significantly from +29 to +6, while confidence in the Midlands &
East Anglia also decreased from +19 to +6. Wales and the West had an increase
in workload predictions, recovering from -15 to 0.
More small practices
(1-10 staff) expected their workload to decrease over the next three months,
dropping 4 points to -8. Medium-sized practices (11-50 staff) continued to be
positive (+24), as well as large practices (51+ staff).
September brought a
decrease in confidence across all sectors – the commercial sector (-7),
community sector (-10), public sector (-10) and the private housing sector
(-4), which was last negative in June 2012.
However, the Future
Trends Staffing Index, which measures expectations of the number of permanent
staff over the following three months, rose from 0 to +3 in September.
The survey also
highlighted a lack of preparation by practices for a no-deal Brexit. In
September, more than half (57%) of practices had done no preparation at all and
of these, only 5% intended to do so in future. The survey showed 30% of
practices had undertaken very few preparations, and only 7% had prepared across
all areas where disruption is expected, despite Government advice to prepare
for a potential no-deal.
RIBA President Alan
Jones said: “Continued political and economic uncertainty has put architects in
a state of limbo, making it very difficult for practices to plan for the
future. The RIBA has been providing resources to help guide and support members
through these turbulent times, but it is clear the UK needs urgent clarity on
Brexit, and how it will affect access to talent, the ability to trade and its
impact on development.”
RIBA Head of
Economic Research and Analysis, Adrian Malleson, said: “Every month we collect
commentary from our survey’s participating practices. In September, many were
unequivocal that Brexit has brought significant difficulties to current
architectural practice. These range from a reduction in small private housing
work and fewer enquiries, to wider concerns about the supply of materials and
labour in the case of a no-deal Brexit.”
The RIBA currently
offers a range of advice to practices, including how to apply for an EU
Settlement visa and managing business in times of economic uncertainty. Next
month the RIBA will launch a Resilience Tool Kit, providing Brexit business
resilience guidance to members.
