Economic growth has
been volatile in the first half of 2019, due to pre-Brexit stockpiling and a
surge in gold bullion pushing up imports growth.
But further ahead,
the economy is expected to grow at a modest pace, according to the CBI.
The
UK’s leading business group now predicts GDP growth of 1.4% in 2019 and 1.5% in
2020. This is based on an orderly Brexit deal being ratified by October 2019,
and the commencement of a smooth transition period thereafter.
A
key driver of this growth is household spending (which grows by 1.7% in both
2019 and 2020), underpinned by a recent pick-up in real earnings. We expect
living standards to remain reasonably firm over our forecast, giving impetus to
household spending. However, growth is likely to remain below the average of
recent years, as the ongoing weakness in productivity holds back earnings,
partially offsetting the upward pressure on wages from a tight labour market.
In
contrast to the firmness in household spending, Brexit uncertainty continues to
bite hard on business investment, which remains very weak for this stage of the
economic cycle. The CBI expects business investment to fall for much of the
rest of this year (-1.3% in 2019, 0.9% in 2020).
But
under our forecast assumption that a Brexit deal is ratified, firms are
expected to gradually resume capital spending projects, in particular on new
technology such as artificial intelligence and automation. Nonetheless, growth
in business investment is expected to remain modest, weighed upon by
uncertainty around the end state of the UK-EU relationship.
Rain
Newton-Smith, CBI Chief Economist, said: “Looking through the volatility in
growth over the last six months, our view of modest economic momentum ahead is
largely unchanged.
“However,
there is a lot going on underneath the surface and the make-up of growth in our
forecast is more skewed towards consumers. It’s certainly positive that
household spending has more punch, thanks to an improvement in living
standards. But set against this, Brexit uncertainty is crippling business
investment, which we expect to fall at the fastest pace since the financial
crisis this year. It’s crystal clear that without a Brexit deal by October,
we’re at risk of falling further behind our G7 competitors.
“Our
forecast represents what could be in the event of an orderly Brexit – a decent
foundation upon which we can take the reins and re-focus on vital domestic
priorities that have been neglected. For example, pressing ahead with essential
infrastructure projects such as HS2 and Heathrow expansion will enable the UK
to better connect with and enter new global markets. These priorities will
shift down the list in a no deal scenario, against the backdrop of damage to
the UK economy, jobs and livelihoods.”
Meanwhile,
global growth is expected to be slower this year, though to remain relatively
decent. The global economy is forecast to grow by 3.0% in 2019 and 3.5% in 2020 (in
purchasing power parity terms). However, the global backdrop has been hit by
weaker world trade recently, in part due to the bilateral tariffs imposed
between the US and China. As a result, the CBI expects slower UK export growth
ahead. Coupled with the surge in imports in Q1, this means that no
support to the economy is expected from net trade over our forecast.
The
Bank of England continues to signal a gradual tightening in monetary policy
ahead. While CPI inflation is around target at present, the Bank have their eye
on growing domestic cost pressures, and the subsequent upward pressure on
inflation over the medium-term. Brexit uncertainty is likely to keep the
Monetary Policy Committee in check this year, but we expect two rate rises in
2020, of 25 basis points each.
Looking
ahead, a “no deal” Brexit remains the biggest risk to the outlook, through its
damaging impact on activity, sentiment and financial markets.
Alpesh
Paleja, CBI Principal Economist, said: “One-off boosts to Q1 growth – notably
the pre-Brexit stockpiling bonanza – are set to unwind in the next quarter,
when we expect the economy to flatline. But beyond this, it’s largely more of
the same: we expect modest underlying growth, similar to that seen over the
past year.
“The
impact of Brexit uncertainty rightly gets a lot of airtime. However, we must
not lose sight of the other challenges facing the economy: particularly the
persistent weakness in productivity, which remains the main threat to living
standards and potential growth. Fixing this should remain a focus for both
government and business – for example, by enabling more effective adoption of
new technologies.
“It’s
worth noting that the global backdrop is also looking less benign, particularly
with US-China trade tensions now hitting world trade flows. A further
escalation is a key risk to the UK and, were it to follow a no deal Brexit,
would leave the economy even worse off.”
