The RIBA Future
Trends Workload Index saw a further decline in the first month of 2019 falling
into negative territory from +3 to -3.
Practices in Wales
and the West remained the most pessimistic about future workloads, returning a
balance figure of -14, and practices in London (balance figure -10) and the
South of England (balance figure -6) were also cautious about the medium-term
outlook. The balance figure for practices in the Midlands and East Anglia
joined them in negative territory, falling from zero to -3.
In contrast, the
North of England remains by far the most optimistic location, returning a
balance figure of +26, up from +15 last month.
In terms of practice
size, large practices (with 51+ staff) fell sharply into negative territory,
returning a balance figure of -40.
Medium-sized
practices (with 11 - 50 staff) seemed much more upbeat at +15, but small
practices (with 1 - 10 staff) remained nervous, returning a balance figure of
-5 down from +1.
The picture remained
mixed in terms of different work sectors. While the private housing sector
workload forecast recovered a little from its dramatic fall last month (+3 up
from zero) and the commercial sector saw a modest rise (to -1 from -2), the
public sector workload forecast remained in negative territory (at -2), and the
community sector forecast (-4) experienced another slight decline.
While the overall
RIBA Future Trends Staffing Index fell marginally to zero in January (down from
+1), the staffing forecast for large practices (with 51+ staff) saw a very
significant reverse, falling to -40.
Medium-sized
practices (with 11 - 50 staff) returned a staffing forecast balance figure of
zero and small practices (with 1 - 10 staff), returned a figure of +1, nudging
out of negative territory.
RIBA
Executive Director Members, Adrian Dobson, said: “There is no doubt that
practices of all sizes are cautious about increasing staffing levels due to the
current climate of political and economic uncertainty, however this month’s
findings show that larger practices in particular feel far more vulnerable and
warier than they have of late.
"The employment
market for salaried architects certainly looks to be somewhat more challenging
for applicants over the next quarter.
"The decline in workload confidence for larger
practices compared to their more rosy outlook at the end of 2018 is a cause for
concern. Lack of clarity about the Brexit process and the likely end
destination was cited by many correspondents as the most significant source of
their caution and apprehension, alongside a growing reluctance to commit to
projects on the part of some clients.”
