Since
the start of 2016, the overall trend of construction output has been of growth,
with a period of decline recorded in the early months of 2018, according to the
latest ONS survey.
Since
April 2018, output has shown an upward trend with five out of the latest seven
months experiencing growth in the monthly series.
The
rolling three-month time series provides a more comprehensive picture of the
underlying trends within the industry, compared with the more volatile monthly
series.
The
main points from the ONS were:
- The three-month on
three-month series for all work was up 2.1% for November 2018; this was
driven by all new work, which increased by 3.4%, but was offset slightly
by a decline in all repair and maintenance, which fell by 0.4%.
- The increase in the all new
work three-month on three-month series was driven primarily by private new
housing and infrastructure which increased by 4.9% and 6.5% respectively.
- Construction output recorded
an all-time level high in November 2018 in the chained volume measure
seasonally adjusted series; the month-on-month series grew by 0.6%,
resulting in the total value of construction output exceeding £14 billion
for the first time since monthly records began in 2010.
- This was driven primarily by
strong growth in private new housing, private commercial new work, and
public housing repair and maintenance, which increased by 3.1%, 2.3%, and
5.8% respectively.
- The main factors acting to
depress growth were a steep decline in public other new work, down 5.8%,
as well as a drop in infrastructure, which decreased by 2.5%.
Sarah
McMonagle, Director of External Affairs at the FMB, said: “The UK construction
sector grew by 2.1 per cent during September to November 2018 compared with the
previous three months. This is despite unparalleled levels of political
uncertainty around the very real prospect of a ‘no deal’ scenario.
"However,
we are urging the Government not to allow these results to create a false sense
of security. Since November, political uncertainty has cranked up and is
increasing every day. A growing and prosperous construction sector will be a
distant memory if the Government allows the UK to crash out of the EU without a
deal in place.
“The
construction industry is also extremely concerned about the Government’s
proposed post-Brexit immigration system. In the Immigration White Paper,
published at the end of last year, the Government revealed that they will make
few allowances for low skilled workers to enter the UK post-Brexit.
"Most
tradespeople will be defined as low skilled and therefore will not be permitted
to enter the UK, regardless of whether they are from the EU or further afield.
It is crucial that the Government introduces a post-Brexit immigration system
that continues to allow us to draw on essential migrant workers or else their
house building and infrastructure targets will be totally unachievable.”
