The Royal
Institute of British Architects’ (RIBA) Future Trends Workload Index continued
to recover this month, rising further from +8 in December 2017 and rebounding
back to +12 in January 2018.
In terms
of geographical analysis, the picture remained mixed. London continues to be
the most pessimistic about medium term workloads, with a balance figure of -14.
Scotland and Northern Ireland also remain quite circumspect with balance
figures of zero.
By
contrast, practices in the South East returned a balance figure of +39, the
Midlands and east Anglia a balance figure of +25 and practices in the North of
England +18. There seemed to be more anxiety in Wales and the West however, who
returned a balance figure of +6.
Analysing
the January 2018 data in terms of practice size, there was only limited
variation this month. Large practices (51+ staff) returned a balance figure of
+14, medium-sized practices (11 - 50 staff) also returned a balance figure of
+14, and small practices (1 - 10 staff) a balance figure of +11.
Each
quarter we ask our practices about the value of work in progress compared with
12 months ago. In January 2018 our practices reported a 4% drop in the value of
work in progress compared with January 2017. This is the first annualised fall
in the value of work in progress since April 2013.
In terms
of different work sectors, it was a mixed picture this month. The private
housing sector workload forecast remains the most positive of our sector
forecasts and continued its upward momentum, rising to +13 in January 2018 up
from +9 in December 2017. However, the commercial sector workload forecast
moved in the opposite direction, with a balance figure of +1 in January 2018
down from +8 in December 2017.
The
community sector workload forecast (balance figure -1) and the public sector
workload forecast (balance figure -4) both remain the weaker, with no overall
growth predicted in the medium term.
The RIBA
Future Trends Staffing Index was unchanged this month, remaining at +5 in
January 2018. Large practices (51+ staff) with a staffing balance figure of +29
are more confident about their ability to increase staffing levels in the
medium term than medium-sized practices (11 - 50 staff) with a balance figure
of +9 and small practices (1 - 10 staff) with a balance figure of +4.
RIBA Executive
Director Members, Adrian Dobson, said: “Commentary received from our
participating practices continues to suggest a steady market despite the fall
in our quarterly figure for the value of work in progress. While London,
Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales seem slightly more pessimistic, practices
generally seem to have entered 2018 with an uplift in confidence.
"A
number of practices interestingly noted a reduction in the number of CVs
received from job applicants, particularly from EU architects, an undoubtable
result of the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit negotiations.”
