Growth in
manufacturing output accelerated in the three months to November according to
the latest monthly CBI Industrial Trends Survey.
Order books also
continued to fill up. Total orders were, by a small margin, the strongest since
August 1988, while export order books were the joint highest in more than 20
years.
The improvement in
total order books was particularly marked in food & drink and chemicals,
while export order books strengthened notably in chemicals, electronics and
transport goods.
Output is expected
to continue expanding in the three months to February, although at a more
moderate pace.
Stocks were broadly
adequate in the quarter to November, though the level of stocks was below the
long-run average.
Expectations for
price inflation were similar to recent months, around average.
Anna Leach, CBI Head
of Economic Intelligence, said: “UK manufacturers are once more performing
strongly as global growth and the lower level of sterling continue to support
demand. Output growth has picked up again, and export order books match the
highest in more than 20 years.
“Nonetheless,
uncertainty continues to hold back investment and cost pressures remain strong.
Manufacturers will be hoping the Budget brings some relief from the business
rates burden in particular.”
Key findings:
- 28% of manufacturers reported
total order books to be above normal, and 11% said they were below normal,
giving a balance of +17%
- 26% of firms said their
export order books were above normal, and 6% said they were below normal,
giving a rounded balance of +20% well above the long-run average of -18%
(matched the previous series high in June 1995).
- 40% of businesses said the
volume of output over the past three months was up, and 12% said it was
down, giving a balance of 28% above the long-run average of +4%
- Manufacturers expect output
to growth to accelerate in the coming quarter, with 27% predicting volumes
to increase, and 14% expecting a decline, giving a rounded balance of +13%
- 19% of companies expect
average selling prices to increase in the coming three months, with only
2% predicting a decline, giving a balance of +17% - significantly above
the long-run average of +2%
- 12% of firms said their
present stocks of finished goods are more than adequate, whilst 10% said
they were less than adequate, giving a balance of +2% - below the long-run
average (+13%).
