Election disrupts non-residential starts but private housing activity improving

Latest News Mon, Jul 17, 2017 8:08 AM

The value of work starting on site in the three months to June was 4% lower than during the second quarter of 2016, according to the latest Glenigan Index.

However, on a seasonally adjusted basis, starts were 10% higher than during first three months of 2017.

The main points from the current Index include:

  • Starts in the three months to June were 4% lower than a year ago.
  • Non-residential project starts were 14% down on the same period in 2016, due to falls in retail, health, education and community & amenity projects.
  • Residential starts were 14% up on a year ago, due to a strengthening in private housing starts.
  • Civil engineering starts were 28% down on a year ago.

Commenting on this month’s figures, Allan Wilén, Glenigan’s Economics Director, said: “The snap general election appears to have disrupted the flow of non-residential projects starting on site during the second quarter, with a number of public sector projects as government announcements were postponed during the pre-election run-up to June 8 and a few private sector clients also appearing to have deferred decisions on projects until after the election.

"We anticipate that these delayed projects will provide a boost to starts over the coming months as work gets underway post-election.

“Non-residential projects were 14% down on a year ago. The decline was led by a continued weakening in retail projects. In addition there were sharp declines in education, health and community & amenity projects that may be due in part to announcements on public sector projects being temporarily delayed by the snap general election. In contrast there has been a further strengthening in office and industrial building projects starting on site.

“Private residential starts strengthened during the second quarter. On a seasonally adjusted basis the value of starts was 21% up on the first three months of the year. The rise is despite quieter conditions in the wider housing market and put starts 14% up on a year earlier.

"A pick up in social housing starts during June helped counter earlier weakness, leaving starts for the second quarter unchanged on a year ago.

“Civil engineering starts during the three months to June were 29% down on a year ago, reflecting a weakening in both infrastructure and utilities work."

There were sharp variations in project starts across the country. Whilst most parts of the UK have seen a decline in project starts, the North West and South West and Yorkshire & the Humber saw a marked strengthening in starts, with increases of 21%, 12% and 24% respectively against a year ago.

In contrast the North East, West Midlands, Wales and Northern Ireland saw the sharpest declines, with falls of 21%, 23%, 16% and 52% respectively.

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