The country’s climate advisors, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), have presented a new pathway to a decarbonised UK.
The CCC sets out how to achieve this by 2050, and what decisions need to be made in the coming years to ensure success.
It models that we must reduce emissions by 87% (compared to 1990 levels) by 2040 – and show how this is feasible.
Smith Mordak, Chief Executive Officer of UKGBC, said: “The long awaited seventh carbon budget – the “buildings budget” is here. Around a quarter of emissions reductions required by the budget between 2038-2042 need to come from buildings. This means a significant scale up in the decarbonisation efforts from our industry.
“As UKGBC’s Whole Life Carbon Roadmap demonstrated, and the CCC have confirmed today, the biggest emission reduction for our sector needs to come from the residential sector, with emissions required to fall by 66% by 2040. This will require an increase in the roll out of energy efficiency measures such as insulation, but most significantly, weening ourselves off the gas grid with rapid uptake of electric heating (heat pumps). UKGBC has long-called for a national retrofit strategy, with sufficient funding (our calculator estimates £64bn will be needed across ten years) and a full suite of effective policies to drive change in the sector – so it’s good to see the CCC calling for ‘a clear long-term framework of regulation’.
“As the CCC’s latest budget sets out, we now need key policy levers to be pulled, including, making electricity cheaper, better building regulations to ensure we’re not constructing buildings that will need to be retrofitted before 2050, and a clear and committed phase out date for fossil heating. All of which must be met with financial incentives and public engagement to avoid misinformation and empower people to take up low carbon technologies.
“Critical technologies, like heat pumps, are already in the mass adoption phase in many other countries. We hear all the time from our members that we need to move on this to ensure the benefits of this transition are felt by a UK workforce and supply chain. This budget shows that the UK is trailing behind and we need to catch up fast – not only to decarbonise our buildings, but to back up our claims and ambitions of international climate leadership.
“The Seventh Carbon Budget has come at a time when public and political sentiment towards net zero is in turmoil. However, the CCC’s citizen panel makes clear that net zero must not be a cost to people – affordability and accessibility to these changes must be addressed so that we can feel the benefits that come from improving our built environment – increased health, reduced fuel poverty, and greater energy security.
“As this latest report reminds us, the carbon in the atmosphere pays no heed to our human politics or short-term fiscal thinking, and inaction will only mean the gruelling impacts of climate change continue to worsen alongside innumerable and uncountable long-term costs. The central message is that we must look beyond the short-term: implement solutions now, increase investment now, begin collaborations now in order to ensure the sustainable, long-term flourishing for people, places, and planet.”
But the Plumbing and Heating Federation has criticised the latest 2040 heat pump targets as “completely detached from reality,” warning that without a trained workforce to install them, these targets amount to little more than empty ambitions.
Fiona Hodgson, Chief Executive of the Plumbing and Heating Federation, said: “Heat pump adoption cannot be driven by wishful thinking. The CCC and successive Westminster and devolved governments keep setting ambitious targets while ignoring the fundamental issue: there simply are not enough trained professionals to install them.
“Without serious investment in skills training and workforce expansion, the UK will fail to meet its heat pump targets. All governments need to stop offloading responsibility onto businesses and take action to ensure we have the people to deliver this transition.”
The CCC’s recommendations follow newly obtained Freedom of Information data from Home Energy Scotland (HES), highlighting the scale of the challenge. Since 2019, fewer than 9,000 heat pumps have been installed under the HES Grant and Loan Scheme and the Private Rented Sector Landlord Loan Scheme in Scotland, nowhere near the number needed to meet the CCC’s targets.
To stand any chance of success, heat pump installations would need to increase by 200-fold, a target that is impossible to achieve under current workforce constraints. Policymakers continue to overlook the severe shortage of qualified installers, placing the burden on businesses instead of providing meaningful support.
The Plumbing and Heating Federation also emphasises the urgent need to address the Spark Gap - the imbalance between electricity and gas prices - which remains one of the most significant barriers to heat pump uptake. If electricity stays significantly more expensive than gas, homeowners simply will not make the switch, regardless of policy encouragement.
Fiona Hodgson continued: “We are in a perverse situation where government policy tells people to transition to electric heating, yet energy pricing actively discourages them from doing so. The public will not be persuaded to switch to a more expensive heating system in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis. Without serious reform to energy pricing, the transition to low-carbon heating will remain a pipe dream.”
Russell Dean, Deputy Divisional Manager at Mitsubishi Electric, said accelerating heat pump adoption will play a crucial role in achieving net zero.
“Demand for these renewable alternatives is growing, yet consumers and industry need certainty from the government,” he said.
“Direction from the government will give industry and consumers the confidence they need to make the switch. If the government rebalances the wholesale price of electricity with gas, it will make the switch to renewable forms of heating more financially viable for many. Greater clarity on the Future Homes and Building Standards is also needed, and this will encourage businesses to invest and accelerate innovation in the renewable heating sector. This will create jobs and free the UK from the global oil and gas market volatility.
“With the right policies in place, the UK can not only shield UK households from rising energy costs, but support the transition to net zero.”
